Every few years someone claims that the
world will be changed by a new technology. Sometimes they are right, and other
times they're wrong. This has lead many of us to believe that we have all
placed too much faith in the technological revolution. Despite all our
criticism, concerns and fears about anything new that involves a microchip, no
one can deny that the world has changed for the better or worse thanks to high
tech gadgetry and there is no end in sight. In most cases there is not an
instant effect caused by new inventions. It takes time for people, industry and
governments to adjust. During those periods of adjustment the technology has
time to become refined and less expensive. Workers who lose their jobs to new
technologies end up having to look for other types of employment. This is a
cycle that people have experienced since the dawn of the industrial revolution,
and now it is about to happen all over again in a huge way.
When cell phones came along most people
thought of them as a new toy for the wealthy. Today, most people have one and
for many the phone in their pocket is the only one they have. The instant
upside is that we can easily stay in touch with our family, friends, employers
or business contacts. More than just personal communication devices, smart
phones now allow us to take care of many tasks that once required a PC to
handle. The downside is that we can no longer hide from the world unless we
simply do not answer our calls. Add to that the fact that we can easily become
addicted to social media, texting, games and all kinds of online activities.
When the "mobile phone"
revolution first started to explode a lot of investors and venture capitalists
thought they would make a fortune investing in various schemes to buy or sell
phones or air time. Most of those investments fell flat and ended up being loss
leaders. That is why it is important to see what is coming, know when to make a
purchase; or invest and how. Otherwise is it all too easy to become a victim of
new technology. If you dout this just visit any garage sale or junk shop where
you will find all sorts of technology that was supposed to go on for years and
expand into more advanced versions. Good examples: Atari Game Systems, The Adam
Computer, Game Boy, 8mm amd VHS Camcorders, Betamax and VHS Video
Recorders/Players, Laser Disc Players, Cassette, 8 Track and Reel to Reel Tapes
and Machines, Telex Machines, PDAs, Portable Televisions, LED Watches and
Typewriters.
When personal computers first appeared
they were expensive toys designed for geeks who loved electronics. Even after
companies like Apple designed machines that would be attractive to everyone,
they often became obsolete by the time they hit store shelves. People made and
lost fortunes over these. That is because those early computers represented the
type of advanced technology that kept advancing so rapidly that it left very
little time for consumers to catch up. A lot of people jumped in to the early
versions of these machines for fear that they might be left behind. I remember
buying a bunch of different and unique computer systems with all their bells
and whistles during the 1980s. None of them lasted or really did all that I
wanted them to do. The upside for me was that I had to write my own programs
for most of them to do what I wanted them to do, so I learned a lot about how
these machines and their programs worked.
I recall when the "World Wide
Web" was suddenly transitioned from a secretive way for the U.S. Military
and Government to communicate and exchange data to a place where everyone was
welcomed. A lot of people ignored or downplayed it at that time. However,
before long all those popular electronic Bulletin Boards accessible by computer
modems began to quickly relocate from phone numbers to web addresses. When the
early Windows operating systems began to appear their emphasis was on PC
applications. By the time that Windows 95 was released, even the venerable Bill
Gates admitted that he had vastly underestimated how popular and important the
Internet would become. A lot of other investors and companies saw the potential
and rushed to get in on the excitement by creating Internet Service Providers
with electronic mail. Since that time many of them have vanished or become a
part of conglomerates. Understanding or seeing the potential of new technology
is never enough. You have to know how to avoid the hype, survive the changes
and possibly even make some money along the way.
In 2001 the Segway PT was unveiled. This
two-wheeled people transport device was supposed to be the next big thing. Even
Steve Jobs said that this invention would be "as big a deal as the
PC." However, unlike cell phones, personal computers or the Internet, the
Segway had a limited market. Children, senior citizens and many disabled persons
can use cell phones, personal computers and the Internet. Most them could not
or would not use the Segway. These personal transportation oddities fit the
needs of various industries and businesses much like the robots and
programmable machines that have taken over many manufacturing and other jobs,
but like those devices the Segway has many limitations in terms of users,
terrain and applications which have kept it from being the huge success that
many once thought it would be. Wide appeal, application and usage are the key
components to any truly successful new technology and one is about to begin a
slow burn that will lead to an explosive change in society and the world of
finance.
Some time ago Google demonstrated their
self-drive car to a public underwhelmed by what they saw. The problem was that
it was kind of ugly with that weird rotating thing on top and most people had
no faith that fully automated vehicles could ever take over the roadways of the
world. What people did not know then and many still have no clue about today is
that many tech and car companies are currently betting the farm on the fact
that self-drive vehicles will take over the road within the next ten to twenty
years. We already have vehicles that can park themselves and now come with a
wide variety of safety or anti-collision devices on board. Some vehicles now
have the ability to make automated decisions about braking, parking and other
maneuvers. Is it that hard to believe that there will be much more to come?
This new technology will not appear
overnight, but it will benefit everyone instead of just being attractive to a
niche market. It is going to be refined and slowly introduced to people a
little at a time. When all the research and trials come to fruition, fully
automated cars will begin to make a huge impact everywhere. Insurance companies
that depend mostly on auto policies will begin to disappear. Auto body shops
will be as rare as photo developing stands. The numbers of people who die or
are severely injured in auto accidents will likely drop to an almost
insignificant amount. Personal injury lawyers will have to look for new
clients. Police Officers will have to find new and creative ways to write
tickets. The price of gas will fall dramatically due to the efficiency of
self-driving vehicles: Most automated cars will probably be powered by hybrid
or alternative energy sources.
Prices on some consumer goods will drop
as automated trucks hit the road and are able to pick up and deliver more
frequently. Even with human monitors on board, those people will no longer need
to wear themselves out by constantly handling the operation of such huge and
cumbersome vehicles. That means they may be able to remain on board for longer
periods of time. Lowering the cost of delivery to market will allow many new
products to be introduced that might have been unavailable due to those cost
factors. The expense and complexity of managing huge traffic systems will be
lessened and the experience of having to travel at a snail's pace to and from
work during the rush hour will be all but eliminated. The money saved by the
implementation of self-drive vehicles could be used to repair and replace the
many roads, bridges and tunnels that have become dangerous to use or are simply
obsolete.
Governments see the potential of
automated vehicles. We know this because many are slowly, but surely, adapting
or enacting laws to accommodate this new technology. Self-drive vehicles are
already legal for the purposes of research and development as far as the
federal government is concerned. Several U.S. States have also made them legal
to operate, with many others having already proposed pending legislation. Many
state legislators have quietly been told to expect some fully automated
vehicles by 2018-2020 at the latest. What concerns government officials and the
developers of this new technology are the hackers. They can already use the
existing technology in many new vehicles to take them over and bypass drivers.
That is a real concern that must be dealt with from a legal and technological
standpoint. That need for failsafe automated vehicles are one of the things
slowing their development and appearance in new car dealer show rooms.
Things are moving fast when it comes to
fully automated vehicles, but that does not mean that small investors or
venture capitalists should invest in them right now. The truth is that no one
really knows what twists and turns this new technology will take. Besides, I am
certain that there will be all sorts of brand new after market and
technological accommodation opportunities to make lots of money for small
investors when the time is right. Just imagine all the new gadgets and systems
that will appear as needed when this new technology becomes prevalent. Until
then it is would be a wise new car buyer or high tech investor that keeps his
or her eyes on self-drive vehicles and the markets they will shortly begin to
create.
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